General Rule:
You must pay estimated tax for 2026 if both of the following apply.
- You expect to owe at least $1,000 in tax for 2026 after subtracting your withholding and refundable credits.
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You expect your withholding and refundable credits to be less than the smaller of;
- 90% of the tax to be shown on your 2026 tax return, or
- 100% of the tax shown on your 2025 tax return (110% if your AGI for 2025 was more than $150,000 ($75,000 if Married Filing Separately)). Your 2025 tax return must cover all 12 months.